Estimate cannibalisation risk, capture rate and revenue scenarios for renewable energy PPAs across EU bidding zones. Built for PPA brokers, offtakers and renewable developers.
Cannibalisation occurs when a renewable asset generates most of its power during periods when prices are suppressed by other renewable output. A wind farm generates most in windy conditions — exactly when all other wind farms are also generating, pushing prices down. Solar assets face the same effect at midday.
The capture rate is the ratio of the asset's average achieved price to the baseload market average. A 15% cannibalisation rate means the asset captures only 85% of the average market price.
Zones with high renewable penetration (DK1, ES, SE3) have the highest cannibalisation rates. Zones with diverse generation mix (FR, GB) have lower rates but are increasing as renewables grow.
Get AI-generated PPA risk assessment with 2-year historical capture rate data and zone comparison