Tools/Renewable Cannibalization Calculator

Renewable Cannibalization & Capture Rate Calculator

Estimate solar PV & wind capture prices, discount factors vs. baseload prices, and annual PPA revenue haircuts due to high renewable penetration.

Renewable Cannibalization & Capture Rate Model

Simulate solar/wind capture price discounts, negative price exposure & PPA revenue haircuts across EU zones.

1. Technology & Asset Location
Installed Capacity50 MW
Annual Production75 GWh
2. Commercial & PPA Assumptions
3. Sensitivity Matrix (Realized Capture Price vs Baseload & Capture Rate)
Capture Rate-15% BaseloadBase Baseload+15% Baseload
52% Capture38.945.852.6
62% Capture46.454.662.7
72% Capture53.963.472.9
CANNIBALIZATION SUMMARY (DE-LU)50MW SOLAR
Realized Capture Price
54.6 / MWh
62% of Baseload Price (88/MWh)
Cannibalization Discount-33.4/MWh
Annual Revenue Loss (Haircut)-2,508,000
Expected Negative Hours (DE-LU)480 Hours / Year
Net Realized Annual Revenue4,092,000

Renewable Capture Rate Benchmark (Germany-Lux)

ZONE BENCHMARK

Indicative spread benchmarks & capture rate metrics for Germany-Lux (EUR)

Indicative Capture Rate
62%
Indicative Discount
-33.4 / MWh
Avg Negative Hours
480h / year
Baseload Ref
88 / MWh
Summer Solar Midday Capture Price: 34.20/MWh (vs 88 Baseload)Indicative Discount: -61%
Winter Wind Capture Price: 74.50/MWh (vs 88 Baseload)Indicative Discount: -15%
Negative Price Exposure Hours: 480 Hours / YearEEG §51 Compensation Risk: Active

Unlock Zone Benchmark Data & HTML Model

Get full access to hourly generation-weighted capture curves, PPA risk models & 3 free AI intelligence reports.

Understanding Renewable Cannibalization in European Markets

1. The Merit-Order Effect

Zero-marginal-cost solar and wind generation pushes expensive gas/coal plants out of the dispatch stack during sunny or windy hours, driving prices down.

2. Capture Rate Discount

Because solar assets produce most electricity when overall market prices are lowest, their generation-weighted capture price is significantly lower than average baseload prices.

3. PPA Contract Exposure

Pay-as-Produced PPAs and EEG §51 negative price rules (6-hour zero compensation) directly impact project cash flows and debt service coverage ratios.